Print this article
DWS Prefers European Over US Equities
Amanda Cheesley
19 May 2025
Although US stocks recently recovered more lost ground than their European counterparts, Vincenzo Vedda, global chief investment officer at , has also reduced his exposure to US equities, leading him to a slight underweight in equities, while he remains neutral overall on bond markets.) On Japan, Vedda highlighted that the Japanese stock market has recovered again in the course of April, after US President‘s Donald Trump tariff announcements on 2 April sent stock prices downhill. All in all, he is constructive on Japanese stocks but has slightly reduced his MSCI Japan target from 1,780 points to 1,690. Fixed income Meanwhile, Joost van Leenders, senior investment strategist at wealth manager , highlighted that his overweight position in US government bonds derives partly from his cautious stance on equities. The position is also the result of the large underweight the firm holds in US investment grade credits. Taking that position into account,van Leenders holds an underweight position in US investment grade bonds (government bonds and credits combined) and would therefore profit from an upturn in yields. This isn’t something he foresees happening. The overweight in US government bonds is mostly because of the interest revenue. In the eurozone, van Leenders has increased his position in government bonds at the expense of its cash position. He anticipates low growth and declining inflation in the eurozone and thinks that monetary policy has been reasonably well priced in. Here, too, he sees little potential for yields to come down, but the steeper yield curve means that he finds longer-term bonds more attractive than cash. Given the prospect of further cuts to interest rates by the European Central Bank, van Leenders expects the interest revenue on longer-term bonds to become even more attractive. Currencies Alternatives
For US government bonds (10 years), DWS expects a slight decline of yields. A threatening economic slowdown combined with the debt situation sent returns on a roller-coaster ride. DWS revised its return forecast by March 2026 from 4.50 per cent to 4.30 per cent.
Year-to-date, the euro has already appreciated by about ten percent versus the dollar. Against the background of the unpredictability of US politics, international investors increasingly mistrust the dollar, which was hit by the same sell-off as US stocks and bonds. DWS's Vedda expects the dollar weakness to continue so that he forecasts a euro/dollar exchange rate of 1.18 by March 2026.
Trade conflicts, declining trust in the dollar and potentially markedly higher US deficits have prompted DWS to once again raise its gold price forecast, although gold has already gained 23 per cent year-to-date. DWS yield forecast as of March 2026: 3,600 (previously: 3,250) dollars per ounce.